Pehle samjho: Stages kya hote hain?
Har stock — chahe woh Reliance ho, ya koi smallcap — ek cycle follow karta hai. Stan Weinstein ne is cycle ko chaar stages mein divide kiya tha, aur yeh framework pichhle 35+ saalon se har serious position trader ka foundation hai. Chaaron stages yeh hain:
Chaar Stages — Ek Line Mein
- Stage 1 — Basing: Stock gir raha tha, ab sideways trade kar raha hai. Kuch nahi ho raha. Smart money quietly accumulate kar raha hai.
- Stage 2 — Advancing: Stock ne base todd diya, upar ki taraf move shuru. Yahi woh stage hai jahan paisa banta hai.
- Stage 3 — Topping: Move slow ho raha hai. Top ban raha hai. Smart money exit kar raha hai. Retail traders aa rahe hain.
- Stage 4 — Declining: Stock gir raha hai. Har rally fail ho rahi hai. Yahaan bilkul entry nahi leni.
Simple rule yeh hai: sirf Stage 2 mein positions lo. Baaki har stage mein ya toh aapka paisa idle pada hai, ya aap actively loss kar rahe ho. Weinstein ne yeh baat 1988 mein likhi thi — aur aaj bhi waise ki waise applicable hai.
Stage 2 kaise identify karein — chaar simple checks
Theory kaafi hui, ab practical. Kisi bhi NSE stock ko Stage 2 mein hai ya nahi, yeh 5 minute mein check kiya ja sakta hai. Aapko bas apna favourite charting tool kholna hai (ya Kasauti use karna hai, jahan yeh sab automatic hai) aur 50 DMA, 150 DMA, aur 200 DMA overlay karni hai.
Stage 2 Checklist — Chaaron conditions true honi chahiye
- Price 200 DMA ke upar hai — Long-term trend up hai. Agar price 200 DMA ke neeche hai, game over. Stock Stage 2 mein nahi hai.
- Price 150 DMA ke upar hai — Intermediate trend bhi up hai. Yeh confirm karta hai ki yeh sirf short-term bounce nahi hai.
- 50 DMA, 200 DMA se upar hai — Short-term trend long-term trend ko lead kar raha hai. Isko technical traders "Golden Cross" kehte hain.
- 200 DMA upar ki taraf slope kar raha hai — Yeh sabse important hai. 200 DMA flat ya neeche hai toh stock Stage 1 ya Stage 3 mein ho sakta hai — Stage 2 mein nahi.
Bas yahi chaar cheezein. Chaaron simultaneously true honi chahiye. Agar ek bhi miss hai, stock Stage 2 mein nahi hai — move on to the next one.
Important: Indian retail traders ki sabse badi galti yeh hai ki woh "sasta" stock dhundte hain. Ek stock jo ₹500 se ₹300 aa gaya hai, woh aksar Stage 4 mein hota hai — aur aage ₹150 bhi ja sakta hai. Stage 2 stocks "sasta" nahi dikhte — woh strong dikhte hain, 52-week high ke paas trade kar rahe hote hain. Yahi bahut se traders ko confuse karta hai.
Real example: Kasauti par kaise dikhta hai
Kasauti har NSE stock ko daily basis par classify karta hai. Har stock card par aapko ek stage badge dikhta hai — S1, S2, S3, ya S4. Agar aap sirf Stage 2 stocks dekhna chahte hain, methodology bar mein "Weinstein / Stage 2" button click karo — poora universe filter ho jaayega.
Ye typically 200-400 stocks return karta hai bull market mein, aur 30-50 correction mein. Yeh numbers khud mein useful information hain — jab kam stocks qualify karte hain, market narrow ho raha hai aur aapko defensive rehna chahiye. Jab bahut stocks qualify karte hain, broad-based bull market chal raha hai.
Next step: Stage 2 mein se best stocks kaise chunein
Stage 2 mein hona zaroori hai, but sufficient nahi hai. Ek Stage 2 stock ke andar aur filters apply kar sakte ho — jaise Minervini ka Trend Template (jo Stage 2 ka stricter version hai), ya Darvas Box breakouts, ya RS Rating 90+ (jo Livermore aur O'Neil dono ka favourite filter tha).
Kasauti mein yeh sab ek click ki baat hai. Stage 2 filter apply karo, phir Minervini filter lagao — jo stocks dono pass karte hain woh highest-conviction setups hain. Kuch hi bachte hain, lekin wahi kaam ke hain.
Yaad rakhne ki baatein
Stage analysis ka sabse powerful aspect yeh hai ki yeh emotional decisions eliminate karta hai. Aap "mujhe lagta hai" ya "news mein accha dikha" ke basis par entry nahi le rahe — aap objective technical conditions dekh rahe ho. Chaar conditions, either true hain ya nahi. No interpretation, no opinion.
Aur yeh system baar-baar test ho chuka hai — 1988 se aaj tak, US markets se India tak, largecaps se smallcaps tak. Jahaan bhi apply karo, principle same rehta hai: smart money accumulation (Stage 1) → markup (Stage 2) → distribution (Stage 3) → markdown (Stage 4). Aapka kaam sirf yeh identify karna hai ki stock abhi kaun se stage mein hai, aur accordingly action lena hai.